Caveats When Comparing California’s 2018 and 2019 Homeless Count Results

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) requires continuums of care (CoCs) to complete an unsheltered and sheltered homeless count every other year, which occurs on odd-number years such as 2019. Completing an unsheltered count during an even number year is optional.

HUD requires CoCs to complete a sheltered count every year. If a CoC chooses not to complete an unsheltered count during an even number year, the CoC’s unsheltered count for the previous odd-number year is carried over into the even number year and totaled with the even number year sheltered count.

Twenty-three (23) or more than half (52.3%) of the 44 CoCs had the same number of unsheltered persons in 2018 as in 2017 because their 2017 unsheltered number was carried over into 2018 and reported by HUD.

The three tables below reveal differences in the percentages that represent an increase when 2019 homeless count results are compared to 2018.

• There is an increase of 4% when the 2019 homeless count results for all 44 CoCs are compared to their 2018 homeless count results (see Table 1);
• There is an increase of 3% when the 2019 homeless count results for the 21 CoCs that did complete an unsheltered count in 2018 are compared to their 2018 homeless count results (see Table 2);
• There is an increase of 4% when the 2019 homeless count results for the 23 CoCs that did not complete an unsheltered count in 2018 are compared to their 2018 homeless count results (see Table 3).

Overstating the Increase

Stating that there was an increase of 16.4% in homelessness in California between 2018 and 2019 may be an overestimation because of a comparison of apples-to-oranges.

Comparing the 2019 homeless count results for all 44 California CoCs that conducted an unsheltered and sheltered count to the 21 CoCs that conducted an unsheltered and sheltered count in 2018 combined with the 23 CoCs that only conducted a sheltered count in 2018 and had their 2017 unsheltered count carried over to 2018, creates an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Comparing apples to apples, meaning the 21 CoCs that completed an unsheltered and sheltered count in 2018 to the same 21 CoCs that completed an unsheltered and sheltered count in 2019, reveals a lesser increase of 10.2%.

Implications for Next Steps

Future debates and discussions noting a comparison of the 2020 homeless count results to the 2019 results may also include an overestimation or an underestimation because not all 44 CoCs will complete an unsheltered count in 2020 and have their 2019 unsheltered count carried over into their 2020 count creating another apples-to-oranges comparison.

To avoid the potential for overestimation or underestimation, only comparisons of homeless counts completed in odd-number years should frame national and California-wide debates and discussions about increases in homelessness because of an apples-to-apples context.

An apples-to-apples comparison can be done by comparing the 2021 homeless count results with 2019 results, which will contribute to a better understanding of the scope of homelessness in California and its impact on the number of persons counted homeless nationwide.

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Table 1. Comparison of 2019 homeless count results to 2018 homeless count results for all 44 California CoCs

	Continuum of Care (CoC)	2018	2019
CA-500	San Jose/Santa Clara City & County CoC	7,254	9,706
CA-501	San Francisco CoC	6,857	8,035
CA-502	Oakland, Berkeley/Alameda County CoC	5,496	8,022
CA-503	Sacramento City & County CoC	3,621	5,561
CA-504	Santa Rosa, Petaluma/Sonoma County CoC	2,996	2,951
CA-505	Richmond/Contra Costa County CoC	2,234	2,295
CA-506	Salinas/Monterey, San Benito Counties CoC	3,299	2,704
CA-507	Marin County CoC	1,095	1,034
CA-508	Watsonville/Santa Cruz City & County CoC	2,320	2,167
CA-509	Mendocino County CoC	880	785
CA-510	Turlock, Modesto/Stanislaus County CoC	1,356	1,923
CA-511	Stockton/San Joaquin County CoC	1,685	2,631
CA-512	Daly City/San Mateo County CoC	1,238	1,512
CA-513	Visalia/Kings, Tulare Counties CoC	967	1,064
CA-514	Fresno City & County/Madera County CoC	2,144	2,508
CA-515	Roseville, Rocklin/Placer, Nevada Counties	678	617
CA-516	Redding/Shasta County CoC	1,149	1,349
CA-517	Napa City & County CoC	322	322
CA-518	Vallejo/Solano County CoC	1,129	1,151
CA-519	Chico, Paradise/Butte County CoC	1,125	1,266
CA-520	Merced City & County CoC	514	608
CA-521	Davis, Woodland/Yolo County CoC	448	655
CA-522	Humboldt County CoC	703	1,702
CA-523	Colusa, Glen, Trinity Counties CoC	268	192
CA-524	Yuba City/Sutter County CoC	765	721
CA-525	El Dorado County CoC	645	613
CA-526	Tuolumne, Amador, Calaveras, Mariposa Counties CoC	398	845
CA-527	Tehama County CoC	125	288
CA-529	Lake County CoC	615	408
CA-530	Alpine, Inyo, Mono Counties CoC	157	214
CA-531	Nevada County CoC	272	415
CA-600	Los Angeles City and County	49,955	56,257
CA-601	San Diego City and County CoC	8,576	8,102
CA-602	Santa Ana, Anaheim/Orange County CoC	4,955	6,860
CA-603	Santa Maria/Santa Barbara County CoC	1,706	1,803
CA-604	Bakersfield/Kern County CoC	885	1,330
CA-606	Long Beach CoC	1,873	1,894
CA-607	Pasadena CoC	677	542
CA-608	Riverside City & County CoC	2,316	2,811
CA-609	San Bernardino City & County CoC	2,118	2,607
CA-611	Oxnard, San Buenaventura/ Ventura County CoC	1,308	1,669
CA-612	Glendale CoC	260	243
CA-613	Imperial County CoC	1,493	1,413
CA-614	San Luis Obispo County CoC	1,095	1,483
	Total:	129,972	151,278
	Difference between 2018 and 2019 counts:	+21,306	+16.4

Table 2. Comparison of 2019 homeless count results to 2018 homeless count results for the 21 California CoCs that completed an unsheltered count in 2018 and 2019

	Continuum of Care (CoC)	2018	2019
CA-504	Santa Rosa, Petaluma/Sonoma County CoC	2,996	2,951
CA-505	Richmond/Contra Costa County CoC	2,234	2,295
CA-509	Mendocino County CoC	880	785
CA-510	Turlock, Modesto/Stanislaus County CoC	1,356	1,923
CA-513	Visalia/Kings, Tulare Counties CoC	967	1,064
CA-514	Fresno City & County/Madera County CoC	2,144	2,508
CA-516	Redding/Shasta County CoC	1,149	1,349
CA-517	Napa City & County CoC	322	322
CA-520	Merced City & County CoC	514	608
CA-523	Colusa, Glen, Trinity Counties CoC	268	192
CA-529	Lake County CoC	615	408
CA-530	Alpine, Inyo, Mono Counties CoC	157	214
CA-600	Los Angeles City and County	49,955	56,257
CA-601	San Diego City and County CoC	8,576	8,102
CA-604	Bakersfield/Kern County CoC	885	1,330
CA-607	Pasadena CoC	677	542
CA-608	Riverside City & County CoC	2,316	2,811
CA-609	San Bernardino City & County CoC	2,118	2,607
CA-611	Oxnard, San Buenaventura/Ventura County CoC	1,308	1,669
CA-612	Glendale CoC	260	243
CA-613	Imperial County CoC	1,493	1,413
	Total:	81,190	89,593
	Difference between 2018 and 2019 counts:	+8,403	+10.3

Table 3. Comparison of 2019 homeless count results to 2018 homeless count results for the 23 California CoCs that did not complete an unsheltered count in 2018

	Continuum of Care (CoC)	2018	2019
CA-500	San Jose/Santa Clara City & County CoC	7,254	9,706
CA-501	San Francisco CoC	6,857	8,035
CA-502	Oakland, Berkeley/Alameda County CoC	5,496	8,022
CA-503	Sacramento City & County CoC	3,621	5,561
CA-506	Salinas/Monterey, San Benito Counties CoC	3,299	2,704
CA-507	Marin County CoC	1,095	1,034
CA-508	Watsonville/Santa Cruz City & County CoC	2,320	2,167
CA-511	Stockton/San Joaquin County CoC	1,685	2,631
CA-512	Daly City/San Mateo County CoC	1,238	1,512
CA-515	Roseville, Rocklin/Placer, Nevada Counties	678	617
CA-518	Vallejo/Solano County CoC	1,129	1,151
CA-519	Chico, Paradise/Butte County CoC	1,125	1,266
CA-521	Davis, Woodland/Yolo County CoC	448	655
CA-522	Humboldt County CoC	703	1,702
CA-524	Yuba City/Sutter County CoC	765	721
CA-525	El Dorado County CoC	645	613
CA-526	Tuolumne, Amador, Calaveras, Mariposa Counties CoC	398	845
CA-527	Tehama County CoC	125	288
CA-531	Nevada County CoC	272	415
CA-602	Santa Ana, Anaheim/Orange County CoC	4,955	6,860
CA-603	Santa Maria/Santa Barbara County CoC	1,706	1,803
CA-606	Long Beach CoC	1,873	1,894
CA-614	San Luis Obispo County CoC	1,095	1,483
	Total:	48,782	61,685
	Difference between 2018 and 2019 counts:	+12,903	+26.4